Florida Keys Flats
Islamorada · Upper Keys
Florida, USA
Open live forecast →Target species: Bonefish, Permit, and Tarpon.
Weekly AI Outlook as of 06/05/26
Prime tarpon migration window continues with stable 80°F+ water and manageable southeast winds dropping from 20 to 16 mph through the weekend. Early morning sessions before afternoon heat offer the best shot at resident tarpon plus active permit on the white sand edges. Water temps climbing toward the mid-80s with thunderstorm potential increasing by Saturday — classic late June pattern setting up.
- Tide: Southeast winds moderating from 20 to 16 mph — fishable backcountry conditions with improving visibility on incoming tides
- Targets: Tarpon migration winding down but resident fish active early. Permit scattered on white sand flats, bonefish in turtle grass
- Water Temp: Mid-80s and climbing — prime comfort zone for all three species before summer heat stress kicks in
- Best Window: Dawn to 10am before afternoon storms build. Thunderstorm potential increases Saturday-Sunday
Generated weekly from live USGS gauge readings, weather forecasts, and recent fly shop reports. Updates Friday mornings.
About this Water
- Coastal Flats
- Best months: Year-round; tarpon peak Apr–June, bonefish best Sept–Jan
The Florida Keys backcountry flats are the world capital of sight fishing on the fly. Permit, bonefish, and tarpon are the Holy Trinity of saltwater fly fishing, and nowhere are all three accessible in a single day. The crystal-clear shallow flats from Biscayne Bay through the Middle and Lower Keys offer some of the most demanding and rewarding angling on earth — every cast matters, every fish is earned.
The Florida Keys Grand Slam — tarpon, permit, and bonefish in a single day on the fly — is one of the most coveted achievements in all of saltwater fishing.
January Outlook
January brings excellent permit fishing on the flats as cooler water temperatures concentrate fish in predictable feeding zones. Bonefish remain active on sunny days when water warms into the 70s. Tarpon are scarce but juvenile fish can be found in deep channels.
Productive Patterns
- Crazy Charlie (tan/white)
- EP Spawning Shrimp
- Merkin Crab
- Del Brown Permit Fly
Tips
Start fishing after 10am once the sun warms the flats. Look for bonefish tailing in 6-12 inches of water on incoming tides. Permit favor deeper grass edges.
Water Notes
Water temperatures 68-74°F. Winter cold fronts can push fish into deeper water for 2-3 days.
February Outlook
February offers some of the year's best permit fishing before the spring crowds arrive. Bonefish are actively feeding and pre-spawn permit can be found in pods on white sand flats. Tarpon begin showing in the backcountry channels.
Productive Patterns
- Merkin Crab (tan)
- Bonefish Scampi
- Turneffe Crab
- Del Brown Permit Fly
Tips
Target permit pods on the Atlantic flats on flood tides. Watch for nervous water and fish that are slightly elevated off the bottom — they're actively feeding.
Water Notes
Water 70-76°F. Good visibility on calm days. Northwest winds can dirty flats with turtle grass.
March Outlook
March signals the start of the tarpon migration as fish begin moving up from the Caribbean. Permit are prolific on deep grassy flats. Bonefish can be found in large schools on interior flats on calm days.
Productive Patterns
- Black Death (tarpon)
- Tarpon Toad
- Merkin Crab
- Gotcha (bonefish)
Tips
Early morning tarpon can be found rolling in channels. Permit bite best on a slow incoming tide. By mid-March some daisy-chaining tarpon appear in Hawk Channel.
Water Notes
Water 72-78°F and warming. Light southeast winds provide ideal flats conditions in March.
April Outlook
The grand slam month — tarpon, permit, and bonefish are all in peak form. Resident tarpon school heavily throughout the Keys in April. This is prime time for the iconic Keys grand slam.
Productive Patterns
- Purple/Black Tarpon Toad
- Black Death
- Merkin Crab
- Spawning Shrimp
Tips
Book a guide — April is the most competitive month on the water. Dawn tarpon on the oceanside channels before crowds arrive. Permit are often in pods of 5-20 fish on interior flats.
Water Notes
Water 76-82°F. Southeast winds are ideal. East winds can blow out flats on exposed areas.
May Outlook
May is peak tarpon season with hundreds of fish rolling through on their migration north. Permit spawning aggregations form on deeper reefs. Bonefish are ubiquitous but can be spooky in gin-clear water.
Productive Patterns
- Tarpon Toad (tan)
- Cockroach (tarpon)
- Permit Crab
- Bonefish Clouser
Tips
Daisy-chaining tarpon in the morning on oceanside channels. Use a light tippet (16-20 lb) for wary permit. Bonefish schools are large but require delicate presentations.
Water Notes
Water 80-84°F. Early May has lighter winds; late May can be windy. Visibility excellent.
June Outlook
The tarpon migration peaks then winds down by late June. Permit and bonefish remain strong. Thunderstorm activity increases afternoon fishing pressure. This is the last comfortable month before summer heat.
Productive Patterns
- Tarpon Toad
- Cockroach
- Merkin Crab
- Gotcha
Tips
Fish early mornings before afternoon thunderstorms. Resident tarpon stay all summer. Permit are less concentrated but still active on edges of white sand flats.
Water Notes
Water 84-88°F. Summer thunderstorm pattern begins. Early morning is the productive window.
July Outlook
Hot summer fishing with resident tarpon, year-round bonefish, and permit still active. Early starts are essential to beat heat and afternoon storms. Night fishing for tarpon in lighted docks is productive.
Productive Patterns
- Tarpon Toad
- Bonefish Scampi
- Spawning Shrimp (night)
- Merkin Crab
Tips
Be on the water at first light. Bonefish school on back-country flats at dawn. Night fishing for tarpon under lights can be spectacular during new moon periods.
Water Notes
Water 88-90°F. Afternoon thunderstorms daily. Calm, glassy mornings are the best fishing windows.
August Outlook
August is hot and stormy but resident tarpon are plentiful. Bonefish and permit continue. This is a good month for backcountry exploration targeting laid-up and tailing fish in the interior.
Productive Patterns
- Tarpon Toad
- Bonefish Scampi
- Small Crab Fly
- EP Shrimp
Tips
Sight fishing in the backcountry early morning. Look for laid-up tarpon in shallow areas during calm conditions. Permit prefer the deeper exposed flats but can still be found.
Water Notes
Water 88-90°F. Hurricane season — monitor forecasts. Afternoon squalls are daily.
September Outlook
September continues the summer pattern but waters begin to cool slightly by month's end. Bonefish activity increases. Permit start forming pre-fall aggregations. Hurricane season requires flexible planning.
Productive Patterns
- Bonefish Scampi
- Gotcha
- Merkin Crab
- Toad Fly
Tips
Permit begin concentrating again on oceanside flats in late September. Bonefish schools grow larger as water cools. Watch for school fish rather than solo tailing fish.
Water Notes
Water 85-88°F. Hurricane season continues. Calm spells between fronts provide ideal conditions.
October Outlook
October marks a turnaround as fall brings cooler temperatures, lighter winds, and excellent clarity. Permit are staging heavily. Bonefish schools are large and aggressive. This is one of the most pleasant months to fish.
Productive Patterns
- Del Brown Permit Fly
- Merkin Crab
- Gotcha
- Bonefish Slider
Tips
Target mid-flat permit pods in the morning. Follow incoming tides for the best bonefish action. October provides consistent calm windows for technical permit fishing.
Water Notes
Water 80-85°F and cooling. Northeast fronts begin but are brief. Clarity improves dramatically.
November Outlook
November delivers outstanding permit and bonefish fishing with fewer crowds. Tarpon are largely absent but some resident fish stay. Cool conditions make it the most comfortable month of the year.
Productive Patterns
- Merkin Crab (EP)
- Del Brown
- Bonefish Scampi
- Gotcha (bone)
Tips
November permit fishing rivals spring. Schools are large and fish are aggressive before winter. All-day fishing is comfortable — no heat issues.
Water Notes
Water 75-80°F. Cooler fronts arrive regularly but are short-lived. Excellent flat conditions.
December Outlook
December fishing is excellent when cold fronts pass. Between fronts, warm sunny days produce terrific bonefish and permit action. Tarpon are in deeper channels and can be found on bluebird days after cold fronts.
Productive Patterns
- Merkin Crab
- Crazy Charlie
- EP Spawning Shrimp
- Bonefish Scampi
Tips
Focus on outgoing tides pushing bait from the interior for bonefish. Cold fronts concentrate permit on the lee side of keys. Post-front bluebird days can be magical.
Water Notes
Water 68-75°F. Cold fronts every 7-10 days. Calm periods between fronts are ideal for flats fishing.
Access & Approach
Key West, Islamorada, and Marathon are the main bases. A guide is essential for first-time visitors. Islamorada is the most guide-dense area in the Keys. Florida saltwater license required.
Nearby Fly Shops
- Rising Tide Charters
Regulations & License
Fishing in Florida requires a current license. Always verify season dates, bag limits, and any special-regulation waters before you fish.
Florida fishing regulations & license →
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About Current
Florida Keys Flats conditions on Current combine real-time flow data (USGS, WSC, CDEC, CEHQ), weather, tide predictions, hatch probabilities calibrated to this specific water, and recent fly shop reports from the area.
Florida Keys Flats is one of 245 hand-curated waters in Current. The app and web forecast also generate AI outlooks for any unlisted river, lake, or saltwater flat anywhere in the world — drop a pin or paste a name and Current produces a fresh seasonal outlook with weather, flow context, and recommended techniques.
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