Key West
Lower Keys · Backcountry
Florida, USA
Open live forecast →Target species: Tarpon, Permit, Bonefish, and Snook.
Weekly AI Outlook as of 06/05/26
Prime summer tarpon window with water temps climbing toward the mid-80s, though early morning timing will be crucial as afternoon thunderstorms build through the week. First two days bring heavy rain and stiff winds — tough conditions for sight fishing — but Saturday-Sunday looks much cleaner with lighter winds and minimal precip. Resident backcountry tarpon are the main show now as the migration winds down, with permit and bones solid on calmer mornings.
- Tide: Early morning low tides offer best flats access before afternoon storms build. Night bridge fishing excellent with longer summer evenings.
- Targets: Resident tarpon in backcountry channels, permit on edges, bonefish on morning flats. Snook active around passes in spawning mode.
- Water Temp: Climbing toward summer range of 84-88°F. Warm nights keeping bridge tarpon active well past dark.
- Best Window: Early mornings before 10am — calm conditions and active fish before thunderstorms build. Night fishing strong.
Generated weekly from live USGS gauge readings, weather forecasts, and recent fly shop reports. Updates Friday mornings.
About this Water
- Coastal Flats
- Best months: Year-round; tarpon peak Apr–June, permit/bonefish best Oct–May
Key West and the Lower Keys backcountry represent one of the world's premier saltwater fly fishing destinations. The shallow flats stretching from Boca Chica through the Saddle Bunch Keys to Sugarloaf hold tarpon, permit, bonefish, and snook year-round. The backcountry's mangrove-lined channels and white sand flats offer sight fishing in crystal-clear water, while the famous Key West bridges provide legendary night tarpon fishing. Unlike the Upper Keys (Islamorada), Key West's Lower Keys backcountry sees less fishing pressure and offers a distinctly different character — more remote, more varied, and with a unique blend of oceanside and Gulf-side fisheries.
Key West's night tarpon fishing under the bridges — particularly the old Bahia Honda Bridge and Boca Chica Channel — is among the most unique fly fishing experiences in the world, with 60-100 lb tarpon feeding in the glow of bridge lights within sight of Duval Street.
January Outlook
January in Key West offers excellent permit and bonefish fishing between cold fronts. Snook concentrate in the backcountry channels and under the bridges seeking warmer water. Permit cruise the deeper grass edges of the Lower Keys flats. Night tarpon under the Key West bridges remain a year-round option.
Productive Patterns
- Merkin Crab (tan/olive)
- Crazy Charlie (bonefish)
- Snook Streamer (white)
- Tarpon Toad (night bridges)
Tips
Fish the incoming tide on sunny afternoons when flats warm into the low 70s — bonefish and permit are most active then. Snook stack in the channels near Stock Island and Boca Chica when cold fronts push through. Night tarpon fishing under the old bridges is productive year-round.
Water Notes
Water 68-74°F. Cold fronts every 7-10 days push fish into channels. Between fronts, flats fish well. Night bridge tarpon active year-round.
February Outlook
February delivers some of the year's best permit fishing in the Lower Keys before spring crowds arrive. Pre-spawn permit pod up on white sand flats in predictable feeding zones. Bonefish are actively tailing on calm sunny mornings. Early tarpon scouts occasionally appear in the deeper channels.
Productive Patterns
- Del Brown Permit Fly
- Merkin Crab (EP)
- Bonefish Scampi
- Gotcha (tan/pink)
Tips
Target permit pods on the Atlantic-side flats during flood tides. Watch for nervous water over the white sand — pods of 5-15 permit actively feeding on crabs. Bonefish are in the shallows by 10am once the sun warms the flat. Book guides early — February is increasingly popular.
Water Notes
Water 70-76°F. Improving conditions through February. Northwest winds can dirty exposed flats. Protected backcountry fishes well.
March Outlook
March signals the start of the tarpon migration as the first scouts move up from the Caribbean into the Lower Keys channels. Permit are prolific on the deep grassy flats around the Saddle Bunch Keys. Bonefish schools grow on interior flats. The grand slam season is beginning.
Productive Patterns
- Black Death (early tarpon)
- Tarpon Toad (channels)
- Merkin Crab (permit)
- Gotcha (bonefish)
Tips
Early morning tarpon can be found rolling in the channels between the Lower Keys. Permit bite best on a slow incoming tide over the grass edges. By mid-March, daisy-chaining tarpon begin appearing in Hawk Channel south of Key West.
Water Notes
Water 72-78°F and warming. Light southeast winds provide ideal flats conditions. Tarpon scouts arriving. Grand slam season building.
April Outlook
April is the grand slam month in Key West — tarpon, permit, and bonefish are all in peak form simultaneously. Migratory tarpon school heavily in the channels and along the reef edge. Permit are in large pods on the oceanside flats. This is prime time and Key West's most exciting month on the water.
Productive Patterns
- Purple/Black Tarpon Toad
- Black Death (tarpon)
- Merkin Crab (permit pods)
- Spawning Shrimp (bonefish)
Tips
Dawn tarpon in the oceanside channels before boat traffic builds. Permit are in pods of 5-20 fish on the interior and Atlantic flats — approach quietly on a push pole. The Key West grand slam is genuinely achievable in April with a skilled guide.
Water Notes
Water 76-82°F. Southeast winds ideal. Peak season — book guides months in advance. The most competitive month on the water.
May Outlook
May is peak tarpon season with hundreds of fish rolling through the Lower Keys on their northward migration. The channels between Boca Chica, Stock Island, and the Saddle Bunch Keys are thick with fish. Permit spawning aggregations form on deeper reef edges. Bonefish are everywhere but can be spooky in clear water.
Productive Patterns
- Tarpon Toad (tan/purple)
- Cockroach (tarpon)
- Permit Crab (reef edge)
- Bonefish Clouser (clear water)
Tips
Daisy-chaining tarpon on the oceanside channels at first light — the Lower Keys backcountry channels hold enormous schools in May. Use heavier leaders (20 lb class tippet) for fresh tarpon. Bonefish require delicate presentations in gin-clear water.
Water Notes
Water 80-84°F. Early May lighter winds; late May can blow. Peak tarpon numbers. Visibility excellent on calm days.
June Outlook
The tarpon migration peaks then winds down by late June. Resident tarpon remain in the backcountry channels all summer. Permit and bonefish are strong throughout. Afternoon thunderstorms increase but mornings are magical — calm, warm, and fishable.
Productive Patterns
- Tarpon Toad
- Cockroach (late migration)
- Merkin Crab (permit)
- Gotcha (bonefish)
Tips
Fish early mornings before afternoon thunderstorms build. Resident tarpon stay in the Key West backcountry year-round. Night tarpon under the bridges is exceptional in June — longer evenings and warm water keep fish active. Snook are in summer spawning mode around the passes.
Water Notes
Water 84-88°F. Summer thunderstorm pattern begins. Early morning is the productive window. Night fishing excellent.
July Outlook
Hot summer fishing in Key West with resident tarpon, year-round bonefish, and permit still active on deeper flats. Early mornings and night fishing are the keys to summer success. Night tarpon under the bridges and dock lights is world-class during new moon periods. Snook are in the passes.
Productive Patterns
- Tarpon Toad (night bridges)
- Bonefish Scampi (dawn flats)
- Spawning Shrimp (night)
- Merkin Crab (deep edges)
Tips
Be on the water at first light — bonefish school on backcountry flats at dawn before the heat. Night fishing for tarpon under the Key West bridges (old Seven Mile, Boca Chica channel) is spectacular and uncrowded in summer. Resident tarpon are 40-80 lbs and acrobatic.
Water Notes
Water 86-90°F. Afternoon thunderstorms daily. Calm glassy mornings are the fishing windows. Night fishing is summer's secret weapon.
August Outlook
August is hot and stormy but the fishing rewards those who brave the heat. Resident tarpon are plentiful in the backcountry. Bonefish and permit continue on the deeper flats. This is an excellent month for exploring the backcountry interior targeting laid-up fish. Hurricane season requires flexible planning.
Productive Patterns
- Tarpon Toad (backcountry)
- Bonefish Scampi
- Small Crab Fly (permit)
- EP Shrimp (general)
Tips
Sight-fish the backcountry early mornings for laid-up tarpon in shallow mangrove areas. Bonefish are active at dawn before water heats. Permit prefer deeper exposed flats but can still be found on the edges. Night bridge tarpon remains excellent through August.
Water Notes
Water 88-90°F. Hurricane season — monitor forecasts. Afternoon squalls daily. Morning-only for comfortable fishing. Night bridge fishing productive.
September Outlook
September continues the summer pattern but waters begin cooling slightly by month's end. Bonefish activity increases noticeably as schools grow larger. Permit start forming pre-fall aggregations on the oceanside flats. Hurricane season requires flexible planning but the fishing improves steadily.
Productive Patterns
- Bonefish Scampi (growing schools)
- Gotcha (tan)
- Merkin Crab (fall permit)
- Toad Fly (resident tarpon)
Tips
Bonefish schools grow dramatically in late September as water cools — look for large schools rather than singles. Permit begin concentrating on oceanside flats. Hurricane season means flexible scheduling but calm spells between systems provide excellent conditions.
Water Notes
Water 85-88°F and starting to cool. Hurricane season active. Conditions improving through the month. Fall transition beginning.
October Outlook
October is one of the finest months to fish Key West. Cooler temperatures, lighter winds, and excellent clarity combine with aggressive permit and large bonefish schools. Fewer crowds than spring. Snook are back in the channels after summer spawning. Night tarpon fishing remains excellent.
Productive Patterns
- Del Brown Permit Fly
- Merkin Crab (fall pods)
- Gotcha (bonefish)
- Bonefish Slider (tailing fish)
Tips
Target mid-flat permit pods in the morning on incoming tides — October permit are aggressive and feeding actively before winter. Bonefish schools are large and less wary than spring. Follow the incoming tide across the flats. One of the most pleasant months to fish.
Water Notes
Water 80-85°F and cooling. Northeast fronts begin but are brief and mild. Clarity improves dramatically. Excellent all-day fishing.
November Outlook
November delivers outstanding permit and bonefish fishing with fewer crowds and comfortable temperatures. Snook are in the channels and around mangrove edges. Some resident tarpon stay. Cool conditions make all-day fishing comfortable — no heat issues, no summer storms.
Productive Patterns
- Merkin Crab (EP, fall permit)
- Del Brown Permit Fly
- Bonefish Scampi
- Snook Deceiver (channels)
Tips
November permit fishing in the Lower Keys rivals spring in quality with a fraction of the boats. Schools are large and fish are aggressive before winter. All-day fishing is comfortable. The Key West backcountry is at its most pleasant.
Water Notes
Water 75-80°F. Cooler fronts arrive regularly but are short-lived. Excellent flat conditions. One of the best overall months.
December Outlook
December fishing in Key West is excellent between cold fronts. Warm sunny days between fronts produce outstanding bonefish and permit action. Snook concentrate in warm-water refuges during cold snaps. Night tarpon under the bridges remain productive. Post-front bluebird days can produce some of the year's most memorable fishing.
Productive Patterns
- Merkin Crab (winter permit)
- Crazy Charlie (bonefish)
- EP Spawning Shrimp
- Snook Streamer (cold-water refuges)
Tips
Focus on outgoing tides pushing bait from the interior for bonefish. Cold fronts concentrate permit on the lee side of keys. Post-front bluebird days are magical — clear skies, warming flats, and hungry fish. Night bridge tarpon fishing is a reliable year-round option.
Water Notes
Water 68-75°F. Cold fronts every 7-10 days. Calm periods between fronts are ideal. Night tarpon year-round. Holiday season brings more anglers.
Access & Approach
Key West is the primary base. Multiple guide services operate from Stock Island and Key West harbor. Wade fishing possible on select flats. Kayak access to backcountry excellent. Florida saltwater fishing license required. A guide is strongly recommended for first-time visitors — the Lower Keys backcountry is a labyrinth of channels and flats.
Nearby Fly Shops
- Angling Company
- Saltwater Angler
Regulations & License
Fishing in Florida requires a current license. Always verify season dates, bag limits, and any special-regulation waters before you fish.
Florida fishing regulations & license →
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About Current
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